2022 StanCo Mid Season Team Rankings

 

Oakdale boys at Roughrider by Deanna Turner

 

Trying to rank the teams this year seems especially difficult. The top two boys teams are clear to me, but beyond that all of the teams have serious holes that will hamper them against the rest of the SJS come sub-sections and sections. The lack of head to head competition also muddies the waters.  

You don't like your ranking?? Use it as motivation. Please prove me wrong--I do wish every team reaches their highest goals. In 2 weeks we will all be at Calaveras County Fairgrounds for Sub-Sections and then we will know for sure, but right now this is my opinion.

GIRLS RANKINGS

I reviewed and compared results from Roughrider, Pacific Grove, CCAL 2, and Hughson Supercross. I made some time adjustments and then wrote out a combined 5 way meet between Modesto, Turlock, Pitman, Oakdale, and Hughson. In my made-up fantasy meet the final results were tight (proving just how close these teams are). Could my judgement of time conversions be off--sure. Do runners step up (or flop) in some meets--sure. However if you have read this far, these were the results of my fantasy meet: 1-Modesto 55; 2-Pitman 60; 3-Hughson 69; 4-Oakdale 71; 5-Turlock 86. That is certainly close enough that one great or terrible race could have a multi-place swing. But this is my assessment:

1. MODESTO PANTHERS--they are led by Soph Maya Wolfe. She has a real shot at qualifying for State as an individual. They have three more solid veteran runners BUT it is a million miles back to their 5th runner (running about 27 min for 5K). In my mock meet their 5th runner was LAST. In CCAL they survive because all of the other teams #8, #9, #10...runners are removed for the placing. They are going to struggle to make the top 10 at Subs although their top 4 could qualify as individuals

 

2. PITMAN PRIDE--They are led by Maci Day who has looked good on flat courses and less than good on anything with a hill. They have an experienced team and may be good enough to get a 9th or 10th in D2 at Subs and slip into SJS.

 

3. HUGHSON HUSKIES--they have no seniors in their top 6. They are led by frosh Sophie Benham. Their biggest strength is their youth. Their biggest weakness is also their youth. Additionally most of their runners have not raced on either the tough Frogtown or Willow Hills courses. They will qualify for SJS in D4.

 

4. OAKDALE MUSTANGS--led by the ultra experienced Kassidy Fmura who was injured for much of the early season. She beat both Wolfe and Day at Roughrider and placed 1st in my Fantasy meet. Their next 3 are okay but again finding a solid 5th runner is the challenge for them (about 25 min for 5 K). They will qualify for SJS in the weak D3 race.

5. TURLOCK BULLDOGS--they are led by Shaylan Roy-Williams. The real strength with this team is depth. In my mock meet they had the fastest 5th runner (and their 7th beat all of the other team's 5th runners) but that pack is too far back. I have heard that the sophs in their top 7 will be moving down for subs. It really doesn't change their placement much. They may end up battling with Modesto for the 10th spot to get into SJS. Both teams could slip into SJS; but just as likely, neither could get in.

 

BOYS RANKINGS

Oakdale boys are a generational team. They are probably the best StanCo boys team ever. Currently they are ranked #1 in D3 for the State.  Hughson has an experienced, senior laden team that is hungry for a State meet berth. Beyer is searching for a 5th runner so that they can return to State. The CCAL this season, although very competitive, is weak compared to past seasons. All of the teams could really struggle at Sub-sections and SJS, if they are lucky enough to get there.

1. OAKDALE MUSTANGS--with 4 of the top 20 runners ever from this county. They are ranked #1 for D3 in the State. They will jog through the VOL. They should cruise at Subs and win the section. The real challenge will be at State. Mason Oliveira is slowly improving after a hallowing accident this summer (yes this team could have been even better). Current #5 runner Jacob Cavanaugh continues to improve but will need the race of his life at State.

2. HUGHSON HUSKIES--with an almost all senior team that largely under-preformed last season, the Huskies are anchored by Nathan Horton and Joe Lighthall. They have rolled through the weak TVL this season. Their eyes are solidly set on a State meet berth.

3. BEYER PATRIOTS--they are led by seniors Nate Olsen and Ryan Elias. These two will likely qualify for State as individuals. BUT that is not the goal. They want to return to State as a team. Their #4 runner is improving in leaps and bounds, but it is the #5 runner who will make or break their team hopes. I believe that D3 gets 3 berths into State this season and the Patriots just may grab that last spot.

4. TURLOCK BULLDOGS--they won CCAL 2 over MoHi and Pitman but looked off at Roughrider. CCAL 3 could show which of these teams is really ready for the post-season. Turlock's 5th runner is way back which will really hurt them in the larger Sub-Section meet. They may win CCAL 3 and the CCAL championship but could miss qualifying for SJS (and finish behind Modesto at Subs).

5. MODESTO PANTHERS--they have a solid 5 runners but there is no margin for injury or off race. If they all have a solid day at Subs they will move on the Subs and could place as high as 7th in the sect.

 

6. PITMAN PRIDE--the senior heavy squad has under preformed all season. They will likely finish third in CCAL and it will be a challenge for them at Subs to place in the top ten and qualify for SJS.

 

7. PATTERSON TIGERS--there are no seniors in their top 5. They are led by Diego Gallardo and Jorge Mandujano. Youth is on their side. These kids are just starting to figure it out. BUT it is almost a 2 min gap back to their 5th runner. This year they are in D2, and they could have a tough time finishing in in the top 10 to make SJS