Now that the league championship meets have concluded, league status means nothing. All teams are now divided into 5 divisions based on enrollment. In each division, the top ten teams and the top ten individuals (not on one of those ten teams) will qualify for the Sac Joaquin Section Championship meet. I will attempt to predict in this post which teams and individuals have the best chance of qualifying for that SJS Championship meet. As always if you feel slighted by my comments PLEASE go out and prove me wrong. I will gladly celebrate my failure and your success.
DIVISION 1
The competing South SJS teams in this division will be Turlock, Mountain House, Gregori, Central Valley, Enochs, Modesto, and Downey.
Elias Thronson of Davis Sr enters subs with the fastest 5K of 14:35. For the 3mi distance Oliver Charkiewicz of River City has the fastest time of 14:31.9. Local individuals rated in the top 20 for 5K are 5. Ivan Rodriguez (Modesto); 12. Porter Petty (Turlock); and 17. Gavin Martin (Turlock). There are no local runners in the top 20 for 3mi.
For teams Davis Sr is seeded #1 in the 5K and Oak Ridge is tops for 3mi. Turlock is ranked between 6 and 9. Modesto is between 8 and 13. Central Valley sits between 10 and 15. Mountain House is 15 in the 3mi.
My thoughts...Turlock will qualify as a team (thus Petty and Martin qualify that way. I think Modesto will also qualify, likely with the last spot. If Ivan is healthy he would qualify either way. I don't think any other local teams will qualify. It is highly possible that individuals finishing as high as 60th might get one of the 10 individual spots. So if Modesto doesn't qualify as a team Ivan and Charles Griffith would likely get individual spots. Enoc Reyes of CV could get an individual berth. Vince Wu likely will score an individual spot. Even Thiago Carneiro of Mountain House might qualify
GIRLS
| Dominguez |
Team-wise Oak Ridge leads in both the 5K and the 3mi. Turlock lands between 7 and 10; CV is between 12 and 14. Gregori is 10th in the 5K and Modesto is 11th.
My thoughts...Turlock will qualify. It may come down to either Gregori or Modesto getting the last team spot. If Modesto doesn't qualify as a team, Roselynn certainly will qualify. If Vanessa Morales runs Varsity she will qualify. If Gregori doesn't qualify as a team Evelyn Avalos Amaya and Downey's Edie Leach likely will get individual spots. It is possible that Anniston Staples (Modesto), Karen Magallon (CV), and Kaylee Hartfield (Gregori) could all score and individual berth. I think it will take about a top 55 place to get in.
DIVISION 2
The competing South SJS teams in this division will be Atwater, Pitman, Merced, Grace Davis, Johansen, Golden Valley, Manteca, El Capitan, Patterson, Sierra, and Pacheco
BOYS
| Barajas and Gonzalez |
D2 is all about Jesuit, they are seeded first in both the 5K and 3mi. Atwater is between 3rd and 5th, Golden Valley is 5th. Merced is 11th in the 3mi and Patterson is 13th in the 5k. Sierra could be in there somewhere but Athletic.net have merge their runners with those of Sierra Union and thus their data is inaccurate.
My thoughts...Golden Valley and Atwater will both qualify. Merced will not. Patterson is a strange one...they haven't had all of their top five firing on the same day yet this season. They could grab the last spot if they all had a great race. Individually Sierra's Max Perez and Sebastien Paterson will get in. The only other local boy that should qualify as an individual in this Pitman's Eli Pimentel.
GIRLS
| Cortes and Hampton |
For teams Rio Amaricano is tops in the 5K and Whitney leads in the 3mi. Golden Valley is second in both. Atwater is between 9 and 12. Sierra comes in 11-12. Merced is between 10 and 12.
My thoughts...Golden Valley easily qualifies. Hampton, Dittman, and Carrillo all qualify. Atwater and Sierra could battle for the final spot. Terra Campos (Pacheco) should qualify and Abigail Fraser (Sierra may sneak in if Sierra doesn't.
DIVISION 3
The competing South SJS teams in this division will be Buhach Colony, Beyer, Ceres, East Union, Oakdale, Los Banos, and Lathrop
BOYS
| McGhee |
On the team front Ponderosa is the top team and Oakdale is second. Beyer is 4-5, Los Banos is 8-10, and Lathrop is 11-15.
My thoughts...Oakdale and Beyer qualify. LB might slip in as the last team. Individually Isaiah Salvatier (Los Banos) gets in as an individual if LB doesn't qualify a a team, and Jayden Jaimes (Ceres) also qualifies
GIRLS
| Oakdale's top 4 |
St Farancis is the dominant team in D3 girls. Oakdale is 2-3, Beyer is 3-4, Lathrop is 6-9, and Los Banos is 11-14.
My thoughts...Oakdale and Beyer qualify...surprisingly to me it looks like Lathrop qualifies too. As individuals it looks like Clarissa Rivera (Ceres) and Alysia Sinclair (East Union) will qualify.
DIVISION 4
The competing South SJS teams in this division will be Livingston, Ripon, Hughson, Orestimba, Escalon, Sonora, Riverbank, Linden, Calaveras, Delhi, Hilmar, and Summerville.
BOYS
| Wilson |
West Campus is the top team in the 5K. Sonora is ranked 3-4. Riverbank is 4-5. Hughson has faired better in the 3mi than the 5K making their seeding more complicated. They are 1st in the 3mi but 5th in the 5K. Ripon is 6-9, Summerville is 11-13, and Orestimba is 12-15. Like Hughson, Livingston ranking varies widely from 9th in the 3mi but 15th in the 5K.
My thoughts...Sonora, Hughson, Ripon, and Riverbank all qualify. The next batch of Livingston, Summerville, and Orestimba have a tougher road. They are going to hate me but I am going to say that none of those teams qualify...so there are going to be individuals there...Thomas Whitcomb (Summerville), Ben Cerna (Orestimba), Amanpal Dhaliwal (Calaveras, and Joseph Garcia (Orestimba) should grab individual spots.
GIRLS
| Benitez |
For D4 teams Placer is the top dog. Hughson is 2-4, Hilmar is 6-8, Riverbank is 6-10, Orestimba is 7-10, Ripon is 4-11, and Livingston is 9-12.
My Thoughts...Hughson, Hilmar, Riverbank, Ripon will qualify and maybe Orestimba. I think that Livingston, Delhi and Calaveras will miss the cut.
DIVISION 5
The competing South SJS teams in this division will be Bret Harte, LeGrand. Central Catholic, Denair, Waterford, Ripon Christian, Vanguard CP, Big Valley Christian.
BOYS
Millennium's David Avila leads the D5 in both the 5K and the 3mi. Local runners Landon Ponce (BVC) 3-9, Malachi Arnold (BVC) 5-7, Matijs Zylstra (RC), Jose Ponce (Denair) 13-18, and Abraham Felix (Waterford) 16-20 are highly rated. Central Catholic's Sam Mendoza (9th) and Nico Vigil (10th) are ranked in the 3mi.
Argonaut is the top team in the 5K but Vanguard leads in the 3mi. Ripon Christian is seeded 4th in both distances. Big Valley is 5-6, Central Catholic is 6-8, Waterford is 7-10, Vanguard is 1-7, Bret Harte is 8-12, Denair is 10-11.
My thoughts...Ripon Christian, Big Valley, Central Catholic will qualify as a team. Waterford and Denair are very interesting. They have been very close to each other all season. I am unsure that there are enough available spots for them to both get in. Vanguard is also an interesting team. I have seem them very little. If they compete at Subs, I think it will be the first time. Bret Hart is another team on the bubble. Individually, this division is different than the others in that I think it could take a top 40 finish or higher to qualify as an individual. If Denair doesn't qualify as a team I think Jose Ponce and Jorge Flores (Denair) could get in. The same idea with Bret Harte. If they don't get in as a team then Isaac Farias and Matthew Nord could qualify on their own.
GIRLS
Keilana Rivas of Sac Adventist is the top runner in the 5K and the 3mi. Emma Lynn Hogan (Central Catholic) is 3-4, Josie Rael (Bret Harte) is 5-10, Gracie Bake (RC) is 18-19. Elizabeth Rich (RC) is seeded 16th in the 5K.
Westlake Charter is rated first in the 5K and Vacaville Christian is tops in the 3mi. Locally Ripon Christian is ranked 3-4, Central Catholic is 2-7, and Bret Harte is 5th. Denair is 10th in the 5K.
My thoughts...Ripon Christian, Central Catholic, and Bret Hart should all qualify as teams. If Denair doesn't get a team berth I think Alizey Gonzalez and Alondra Anguiano (Denair) likely will get individual spots. Additionally Waterford's Julee Arreguin grabs an individual berth. This race likely will be even tougher to score that individual qualification...as tough as top 35 or higher.












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