We are getting down to it. At the SJS Championship meet dreams will either be fulfilled or shattered. A handful of teams and individuals may (will) qualify for State. In this post I will review which South SJS Distance competitors and teams will be competing and what I think of their chances to qualify for State. If this all played out like I think it might the South SJS could have 5 teams and 20 individuals qualifying for State this year. I am sure that there will be disappointments and surprises, but anything close to that total would be a banner year for the area.
D1 BOYS
The South SJS Distance competing team is Turlock. The competing individuals are Charles Griffith (Modesto), Vince Wu (Enochs), Thiago Carneiro (Mountain House), and Sidharth Mishra (Mountain House). Three teams will qualify for State and the first five individuals finishing in the top 14.
Even though the Turlock boys were 4th at SubSections and thereby would seem to still be in the hunt for a top three SJS finish, they ran pretty well and were still 36 points behind the third place team. So it looks to me like Davis, Oak Ridge, and Folsom are pretty much locks to gain those three qualifying spots (did I mention that the race is at Folsom giving the Folsom Bulldogs a huge advantage over the Turlock Bulldogs). Turlock runners have a better chance to score an individual qualifying spot. At Subs Turlock's Gavin Martin had the 6th individual place and Porter Petty was the 8th individual finisher. Finishing in the top 5 individuals seems like it could be possible for one or both of them if they put together a season's best performance.
D1 GIRLS
The South SJS Distance competing team is Turlock. The competing individuals are Roselynn Dominguez (Modesto), Vanessa Morales (Central Valley), Kaylee Hartfield (Gregori), Evelyn Avalos Amaya (Gregori), and Karen Magallon (Central Valley). Three teams will qualify for State and the first five individuals finishing in the top 14.
Turlock placed 7th at SubSects so a top three performance is just not happening. It will likely be Davis, Oak Ridge and Rodriguez scoring the team berths. Individually Roselynn Dominguez was the second finisher at Subs, and Vanessa Morales was fifth...So I say that Roselynn does qualify and perhaps Vanessa scores a spot too...which would be amazing since she is just a frosh and still figuring this sport out.
D2 BOYS
The South SJS Distance competing teams are Golden Valley and Atwater. The competing individuals are Sebastien Paterson (Sierra), Max Perez (Sierra), Eli Pimentel (Pitman), Julian Gobran (Patterson), and Ramon Ramirez (Patterson). Four teams will qualify for State and the first five individuals finishing in the top 16.
Golden Valley ran hard at Subs and finished a very solid 2nd place. Although it will still take a great race, they appear to be a good bet to qualify for State. Atwater's 3-7 runners didn't have their best day at Subs. And maybe they were instructed to cruise and not go all out, but it would take the race of the season for them to be in contention as they were over 90 pts back (of 4th place) at Subs. Jesuit is a lock to qualify and likely win. I think that Bella Vista and Vacaville didn't go all out at Subs; they will likely give GV a run for that second spot. Individually Sebastien Paterson was the 4th finisher, Isaian Vargas (Atwater) was 5th, and Yair Gonzalez (Atwater) was 6th. So, it seems possible that the South SJS could score a couple of individual berths to State.
D2 GIRLS
The South SJS Distance competing teams are Golden Valley and Sierra. The competing individuals are Ellie Hampton (Merced), Jaylyn Carrillo (Patterson), Terra Campos (Pacheco), and Hailey Hurtado (Atwater). Four teams will qualify for State and the first five individuals finishing in the top 16.
Golden Valley was 3rd at Subs...that's good...but there is a log jam of quality teams hovering behind them in 4th through 8th. Other than Whitney's spot at the top, the rest of the qualifiers are up in the air. The weather and/or one runner having a good (or bad day) could swing a team from second to sixth. With that said, GV is not deep. They are very vulnerable, but I think they will qualify. Individually Ellie Hampton (Merced) was the 2nd finisher at Subs, Anna Dittman (Sierra) was 3rd, and Jaylyn Carrillo was 4th...they could all earn those precious State berths.
D3 BOYS
The South SJS Distance competing teams are Oakdale and Beyer. The competing individuals are Isaiah Salvatier (Los Banos), Elijah Galvan (East Union), and Prince Chweya (East Union). Three teams will qualify for State and the first five individuals finishing in the top 14.
Team-wise I think that Oakdale will qualify. They might not win, but I think they will qualify as they ran at subs without 2 of their top 7. Beyer didn't run great at Subs. Were they cruising? Maybe, but on their best day qualifying would be a steep hill to climb. Since I think they (Beyer) had more to give, it makes assessing their individual capabilities difficult. So, my best bet is that Oakdale gets in and no local individuals. But Beyer's top trio could certainly spit on that prediction, and I am rooting for them to do exactly that.
D3 GIRLS
The South SJS Distance competing teams are Beyer, Oakdale, and Lathrop. The competing individuals are Alysia Sinclair (East Union), Clarissa Rivera (Ceres), Mariah Yanez (Buhach Colony), and Donna Torres (Los Banos). Three teams will qualify for State and the first five individuals finishing in the top 14.
First let me discuss the teams, because that helps explain the individual landscape. St Francis will win. They jogged the SubSect race. Their top 5 (7) will place in the top 14. Ponderosa will be second. These two teams will combine to chew up not only the top two team places but also a lot of the potential 14 qualifying slots. Oakdale and Beyer will battle for the third and final State berth. Tyleah Badea (Beyer) was the 2nd individual at Subs, Anahi Ruiz Velasco (Beyer) was 3rd, Addison Wylie (Oakdale) was 6th, and Kylie Fast (Oakdale) was 8th. If Oakdale was to earn the 3rd team spot, then I think Ruiz Velasco and Badea will earn individual spots. If Beyer scores the third qualifier, Wylie will have a difficult time placing in the top 14 with the St Francis bubble placing in front of her. For Beyer and Oakdale whether they qualify or not will strongly depend on their #5 runner.
D4 BOYS
The South SJS Distance competing teams are Sonora, Riverbank, Hughson, Ripon, and Summerville. The competing individuals are Amanpal (Calaveras) and Orestimba's Ben Cerna and Joseph Garcia. Two teams will qualify for State and the first five individuals finishing in the top 12. This division may receive the smallest allocations of qualifiers, but it may be the most competitive.
On the team front Union Mine and West Campus went one-two at SubSections and I don't really see that changing. I know that won't make me any friends at Sonora, Riverbank, or Hughson. If that is how things play out, then the local schools could grab most of the individual State spots. Landon Wilson (Sonora) was the first individual at Subs, Asher Berg (Sonora) was second, Carmelo Rodriguez (Ripon) was third, Armando Garcia (Riverbank) was 4th, and Thomas Whitcomb (Summerville) was 5th. Had that been the qualifying race those five boys would have garnered the five berths.
D4 GIRLS
The South SJS Distance competing teams are Hughson, Riverbank, Orestimba, Hilmar, and Ripon. The competing individuals are Sadie Thompson (Sonora), Daisy Rojas (Livingston), Alexa Gutierrez (Livingston), and Calaveras' Kendra McGee and Lisa Lee. Three teams will qualify for State and the first five individuals finishing in the top 14.
El Dorado, Hughson, and Placer were the top three teams at Subs...by 60 pts over the 4th squad. I think those will be the three qualifying teams. With that said then Sadie Thompson (Sonora) would be the first individual, Sophia Jung (Ripon) would be the second, and Jade Carmona (Orestimba) would be 4th. With longer shots of squeaking in are Daisy Rojas (Livingston) who was 8th and Zuri Golding (Riverbank) who was 9th. They would need a breakout race along with someone else faltering.
D5 BOYS
The South SJS Distance competing teams are Big Valley Christian, Central Catholic, Vanguard, Bret Harte, and Denair. The competing individuals are Abraham Felix and Carlos Garcia of Waterford. Two teams will qualify for State and the first five individuals finishing in the top 12.
The top team at Subs was Bradshaw Christian. The battle is for the second spot between West Lake Charter, Argonaut, and Vacaville Christian. Notice that there are no local teams in that mix. BVC ran well at subs but was just too far out to have a real shot. But Malachi Arnold (BVC) does have a chance for an individual berth, as he was 3rd at Subs; and his teammate Landon Ponce was 7th, so he is still in the hunt.
D5 GIRLS
The South SJS Distance competing teams are Central Catholic, Ripon Christian, and Bret Harte. The competing individuals are Julee Arreguin (Waterford), Alondra Anguiano Vargas (Denair), and Alizey Gonzalez (Denair). Two teams will qualify for State and the first five individuals finishing in the top 12.
West Lake Charter should "run" away with the win based on Subs. There will be a tight battle between Vacaville Christian and Argonaut for the second and final qualifier. Individually Emma Lynn Hogan is the only local runner likely to qualify for State.







