Although Athletic.net can be used to compare teams by best marks over any distance this assumes that all courses are the same and that the posted distances are accurate. Anyway I'll do the best that I can with this preview.
D1 BOYS
StanCo schools in this division: Turlock, Modesto, Enochs, Central Valley, Gregori, and Pitman.
# Teams qualify for SJS: 10 (and 10 individuals)
# teams qualify for State: 3 and 5 individuals but must place in the top 14.
StanCo teams ranked in the top 10 for 5K: #2 Turlock; #8 Pitman; #10 Modesto (Davis Sr is #1 and McClatchy is #3)
StanCo individuals ranked in the top 30: #2 Teddy Santos (Turlock); #3 Larson Wejmar (Turlock); #13 Gabriel Avalos (Turlock); #17 Grant Fahrney (Gregori); #21 Logan Petty (Turlock); #26 Gavin Martin (Turlock); #27 Colvin Hamel (Pitman); #28 Gabriel Penwell (Enochs); #29 Zayn Hamilton (Turlock).
Grant Fahrney is the sixth ranked runner not on one of the top three teams but he is ranked 17th overall. To qualify for State the top five individuals must place in the top 14. With that said I would not rule out Colvin Hamel (Pitman) to have a serious shot at an individual State berth.
D1 GIRLS
StanCo schools in this division: Turlock, Modesto, Enochs, Central Valley, Gregori, and Pitman.
# Teams qualify for SJS: 10 (and 10 individuals)
# teams qualify for State: 3 and 5 individuals but must place in the top 14.
StanCo teams ranked in the top 10 for 5K: #3 Turlock; #6 Pitman; #7 Modesto (#1 Oakridge and #2 Davis Sr) StanCo individuals ranked in the top 30: #8 Elle Williams (Turlock); #12 Mylie Olson (Turlock); #14 Aubrey Webb (Turlock); #16 Avery Carlson (Pitman); #19 Maya Wolfe (Modesto); #21 Maya day (Turlock); #30 Lilly Edgerton (Turlock)
Individually once the top three teams are removed from the equation Pitman's Avery Carlson is 4th and Maya Wolfe of Modesto is 5th...but they are both well beyond the required top 14 to grab that State berth.
D2 BOYS
StanCo schools in this division: Downey, Grace Davis, Johansen, Patterson, and Ceres.
# Teams qualify for SJS: 10 (and 10 individuals)
# teams qualify for State: Four teams and 5 individuals will qualify for State but the individuals must place in the top 16 at SJS
StanCo teams ranked in the top 10 for 5K: There are no StanCo teams ranked in the top 10 (Patterson is 12th, Grace Davis is 13th and Downey is 19th).D2 is by far the toughest division. Every year for of the top StanCo runners fail to qualify out of D2 when they would have easily qualified in any other division. However my gut tells me that Grace Davis is good enough to place in the top 10 at Subs and make it as a team to SJS. Patterson's Francisco Hernandez is seeded 18th and Downey's Cesar Bojorquez is ranked 45th. They will likely qualify as individuals from Subs to SJS. The GD trio of Diego Cibrian, Jacob Nguyen and Abraham Sarmiento could also qualify as individuals to SJS if GD doesn't make it as a full team
D2 GIRLS
StanCo schools in this division: Downey, Grace Davis, Johansen, Patterson, and Ceres.
# Teams qualify for SJS: 10 (and 10 individuals)
# teams qualify for State: Four teams and 5 individuals will qualify for State but the individuals must place in the top 16 at SJS
StanCo teams ranked in the top 10 for 5K: There are no StanCo teams ranked in the top 10 (Patterson is 12th).Arriaza, Leach, and Nguyen all qualified for State last year BUT Arriaza may be the only sure bet...did I mention how tough D2 is?
D3 BOYS
StanCo schools in this division: Oakdale and Beyer
# Teams qualify for SJS: 10 (and 10 individuals)
# teams qualify for State: Three teams and 5 individuals will qualify for State but the individuals must place in the top 14 at SJS
StanCo teams ranked in the top 10 for 5K: #2 Oakdale; #4 Beyer; StanCo individuals ranked in the top 30: #7 Hayes Terry (Beyer); #10 Parker Whitemyer (Oakdale); #11 Jacob Cavanaugh (Oakdale); #13 Ismael Dominguez (Oakdale); #15 Alex Mejia-Hidalgo (Beyer); #19 Havyn Bartell (Beyer); #21 Sean Muturi (Oakdale); #26 Weston McGhee (Oakdale).
Oakdale has won SJS the past 3 years and placed in the top 4 at State all three of those years. This year Ponderosa is the #1 ranked team and the Mustangs will have to do something special to repeat as champs. Beyer is ranked 4th and three qualify...you get the pic that they may not earn a ticket to the Big Dance. If that is the case Hayes terry should earn an individual berth to State.
D3 GIRLS
StanCo schools in this division: Oakdale and Beyer
# Teams qualify for SJS: 10 (and 10 individuals)
# teams qualify for State: Three teams and 5 individuals will qualify for State but the individuals must place in the top 14 at SJS
StanCo teams ranked in the top 10 for 5K: #2 Oakdale (St Francis is #1)StanCo individuals ranked in the top 30: #11 Addison Wylie; #22 Kylie Fast; #29 Bradie Evans
Taking nothing away from the Lady Mustangs, who have run the 3rd fastest combined team time at Woodward for StanCo, but D3 is not particularly strong in SJS. With the addition of Kylie fast, they look like a lock to head to State as a team. Beyer's top two girls will likely run F/S in the post season.
D4 BOYS
StanCo schools in this division: Orestimba, Hughson, Riverbank
# Teams qualify for SJS: 10 (and 10 individuals)
# teams qualify for State: Three teams and 5 individuals will qualify for State but the individuals must place in the top 14 at SJS
StanCo teams ranked in the top 10 for 5K: #5 Riverbank; #6 Hughson (for the 3mi distance Hughson is #2and Riverbank is #5)StanCo individuals ranked in the top 30: #3 Pat Kearney (Orestimba); #16 Armando Garcia (Riverbank); #17 Matt Santana (Riverbank); #18 Bobby Nieto (Hughson); #25. Joseph Garcia (Orestimba); #27 Mason Hoyle (Hughson); #28 Alessandro Pimentel (Hughson)
Hughson people in the know believe that the Huskies will place 3rd behind West Campus and Christian Brothers. It does appear that WC and CB may have those top two spots locked up, but the Hughson boys are going to need their best race of the season to get that remaining spot (INHO). I don't think RBK will qualify as a team but Santana and/or Garcia could sneak in to get an individual spot with a PR performance. Kearney will qualify as an individual
D4 GIRLS
StanCo schools in this division: Orestimba, Hughson, Riverbank
# Teams qualify for SJS: 10 (and 10 individuals)
# teams qualify for State: Three teams and 5 individuals will qualify for State but the individuals must place in the top 14 at SJS
StanCo teams ranked in the top 10 for 5K: #5 Riverbank; #6 Hughson (for the 3mi distance Hughson is ranked #3 and Riverbank is #11)StanCo individuals ranked in the top 30: #3 Giselle Fernandez (Riverbank); #5 Sophie Benham (Hughson); #24 Samantha DeLaCruz (Orestimba); #25 Noeli Gomez Orozco (Hughson); #30 Alejandra Gonzalez (Hughson).
I think both Hughson and RBK will qualify to SJS but miss those State team berths. Fernandez and Benham likely will earn individual tickets to State
D5 BOYS
StanCo schools in this division: Waterford, Central Catholic, Denair, Vanguard, Big Valley, Turlock Christian, Modesto Christian
# Teams qualify for SJS: 10 (and 10 individuals)
# teams qualify for State: Two teams and 5 individuals will qualify for State but the individuals must place in the top 12 at SJS
StanCo teams ranked in the top 10 for 5K: #3 Central Catholic; #4 Big Valley Christian; (#11 Denair)Although Central Catholic is a solid #3, (only 2 teams qualify) Summerville and Bret Harte are equally solid at #1 and #2 ahead of them, so I think CC may be left on the outside looking in.
D5 GIRLS
StanCo schools in this division: Waterford, Central Catholic, Denair, Vanguard, Big Valley, Turlock Christian, Modesto Christian
# Teams qualify for SJS: 10 (and 10 individuals)
# teams qualify for State: Two teams and 5 individuals will qualify for State but the individuals must place in the top 12 at SJS
StanCo teams ranked in the top 10 for 5K: #3 Central Catholic; #8 Waterford Vacaville Christian appears to be a solid #1 team but Central Catholic (at #3) is pretty close to #2 Summerville. The point is I think that the Ldy Raiders have a better shot at earning a State berth than the CC boys.